Even the climate models are confused by this year’s weather. When the August monthly outlook was released (July 31st; national Climate Prediction Center) it showed significant confidence that August would have below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. However, the shorter-range outlooks (that update daily) the last few days, seem to contradict that prediction. Whether it is the 6-10-day (August 20-24), the 8-14-day (August 22-28; Figures 1 & 2) or the 3-4-week experimental outlooks (August 25 – September 7), all are predicting significant confidence for above-normal temperatures and precipitation. Given the recent development of drought conditions across the state, these climate predictions (particularly for precipitation) are strongly desired! Will those climate outlooks verify? The current 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast is indicating very little precipitation over the next seven days. That is slightly below normal for this time of the year in Indiana (Figure 3 & 4). It is a roller coaster ride, it seems.
Figure 1. Climate outlook for August 22-28, 2019 that indicates the probability for either above- or below-normal temperature.
Figure 2. Climate outlook for August 22-28, 2019 that indicates the probability for either above- or below-normal precipitation.
Figure 3 & 4. Quantitative precipitation forecast for August 15-22, 2019 (above) compared to the 30-year average of precipitation for Indiana during the same time period (below).
Figure 4.