The past 30 days have been met with warmer than normal temperatures in the northern counties and drier than normal conditions throughout most of the state (Figures 1 and 2). This warm and dry environment is conducive to developing drought – particularly with the increased evapotranspiration rates. While climate outlooks are calling for increased confidence of above-normal precipitation throughout the rest of July, these events are likely to remain spotty with inconsistent coverage across the state. For planning purposes, it may be helpful to know what the forecast is for reference evapotranspiration (ET0). The National Weather Service provides a nice graphical tool (https://digital.weather.gov/) where users can zoom into their area of interest and then view a variety of variables for future time periods out to six days (e.g., Figure 3). Several derivations of the forecasts of reference evapotranspiration (FRET) can be found at the very bottom of the variable pull-down[Read More…]

The roller coaster ride of Indiana weather continues. Things were drying out across the state with signs of browning lawns, rolling vegetation leaves, and lowering pond and stream levels. Then the rains came. Most of the state received between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation from June 20 through 29th – with wetter areas to the south and drier areas to the northeast. While this may seem good enough to relieve any concerns about drought developing, the temperatures have been high to encourage the evaporation of those wet surfaces. As a result, the US Drought Monitor has kept most of the state at “Abnormally Dry”. The climate outlook for July 8-14 shows increased confidence of below-normal precipitation with the possibility of this dryness continuing into mid-July. Additionally, probabilities are significant that temperatures will be above normal – further exacerbating any dryness due to lack of rainfall. The climate outlook for[Read More…]

The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for May is dominated by uncertainty regarding both temperature and precipitation (Figure 1). The computer models could not settle on a consistent pattern for either above- or below-normal temperatures for the month and precipitation outlooks are only slightly confident that there will be above-normal precipitation in southern Indiana. Shorter-term outlooks through mid-May are predicting increasing confidence for continued below-normal temperatures but very little guidance regarding precipitation. Climatologically speaking, there is less than a 10-percent chance that a hard freeze (at or below 28°F) is still likely to occur aside from the northeastern counties in Indiana (Figure 2).  However, forecasts are predicting above-freezing overnight lows for this region, so the threat of any expansive, hard freeze is minimal. With the recent cold temperatures, modified growing degree-day (https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/HeatUnits.html) accumulations have slowed. As of April 20, 2020, GDDs are running 20 to 45 units below normal (Figure 3). Enjoy[Read More…]

Staying true to global climate trends these days, March 2020 finished warmer and wetter than the 1981-2010 climate normal period. Snowfall across the state was below normal and localized flooding was a common feature. There were 3-to-5 more days than average in March where rainfall was observed. This has led to saturated soils throughout the state and a desperate need for some drying out. Will that happen? The national Climate Prediction Center is currently sending mixed messages. The April outlook suggests increased confidence in temperatures being warmer than average and slight confidence that precipitation will be above normal. However, shorter-range outlooks are suggesting even greater confidence for cooler temperatures throughout the rest of the month with uncertainty about rainfall amounts relative to normal. A significant cold wave is expected to pass through the state over the next several days into next week. Overnight lows will be at or below freezing,[Read More…]

Meteorological winter (December-February) is finally over and we can start looking forward to spring.  Across Indiana, winter brought above average precipitation (Figure 1), though below average snowfall.  The temperatures were slightly above normal (2°F-6°F; Figure 2) with no record-breaking cold periods.  Since there were so few colder-than-normal periods, the overwintering of pests and therefore increased pest populations will be a concern for this 2020 growing season. Forecasts for the next several weeks are showing high confidence for above-normal precipitation and temperature.  This pattern is currently projected to continue throughout the March through May 3-month period, and there is strong consensus across the climate community that the rain will not be as impactful as it was in 2019. Computer models are providing guidance that around 2 inches more than average are likely in southern Indiana decreasing to only one-half inch more than average in the northern counties. The 1981-2010 climate normal[Read More…]