The initial cool wave of September is likely over as we welcome warmer temperatures for the next several weeks. The Climate Prediction Center is showing strong confidence for above-normal temperatures through September 24rd, which should help accumulate growing degree days and move agricultural production further along (Figure 1). Outlooks are showing significant probabilities for above-normal precipitation over the next few weeks, but it is uncertain how much and when that precipitation will occur. The 3-month (September-November) climate outlook is indicating significant probabilities for above-normal temperatures (Figure 2). This will hopefully discourage any cold waves passing through from causing an earlier-than-desired hard freeze event. However, keep in mind that predictions are still too far in the future to provide any certainty and climate outlooks are unable to account for a brief (1-to-3-day) event from passing through with temperatures low enough to cause a frost. Primary message: still too soon to predict[Read More…]

The big story this week was the much-needed rain throughout most of Indiana that fell on Monday (August 19th). Since August 15th, this brought up to 5” of precipitation throughout west-central, southwest, and northwest Indiana (Figure 1). This was 2”-4” above normal for the past 2 weeks (Figure 2)! However, as we transition into September and hope temperatures stay warm to accelerate plant growth and catch up from a late-planting spring, climate outlooks are predicting higher probabilities for below-normal temperatures. Precipitation amounts are predicted to be neither above- or below normal for the first week of September, but should shift to higher probabilities of above-normal precipitation by the second week. Abnormally dry conditions continue throughout the state, but have not intensified. Where there was less rain earlier this week, relative soil moisture within the 10-40 cm depth remains below normal (Figure 3).

Even the climate models are confused by this year’s weather.  When the August monthly outlook was released (July 31st; national Climate Prediction Center) it showed significant confidence that August would have below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.  However, the shorter-range outlooks (that update daily) the last few days, seem to contradict that prediction.    Whether it is the 6-10-day (August 20-24), the 8-14-day (August 22-28; Figures 1 & 2) or the 3-4-week experimental outlooks (August 25 – September 7), all are predicting significant confidence for above-normal temperatures and precipitation. Given the recent development of drought conditions across the state, these climate predictions (particularly for precipitation) are strongly desired! Will those climate outlooks verify? The current 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast is indicating very little precipitation over the next seven days. That is slightly below normal for this time of the year in Indiana (Figure 3 & 4).  It is a roller coaster ride,[Read More…]

Some weeks I wonder if I could just re-use the previous week’s weather and climate article! The story seems to be the same: It’s been wet and more rain is expected. It is impressive, however, astounded when to see the contrast in June precipitation (so far) for precipitation across the state (Figure 1).  It seems plenty wet in northern Indiana, I can’t even imagine how wet it must be to the south! Unfortunately, the forecast predicts Indiana will continue to be wet. The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is predicting 3”-5” across most all of the state (Figure 2). Beyond that, the 6-14-day outlook (Jun 24 to Jul 2) is indicating a medium-to-high probability of above normal precipitation.  Even the 3-4-week outlook (Jun 29 – Jul 12) shows a significant probability of above normal precipitation (at least for the northern two-thirds of the state).  The hope will be that all[Read More…]