18 articles tagged "Climate and Weather".

Meteorological winter (December-February) is finally over and we can start looking forward to spring.  Across Indiana, winter brought above average precipitation (Figure 1), though below average snowfall.  The temperatures were slightly above normal (2°F-6°F; Figure 2) with no record-breaking cold periods.  Since there were so few colder-than-normal periods, the overwintering of pests and therefore increased pest populations will be a concern for this 2020 growing season. Forecasts for the next several weeks are showing high confidence for above-normal precipitation and temperature.  This pattern is currently projected to continue throughout the March through May 3-month period, and there is strong consensus across the climate community that the rain will not be as impactful as it was in 2019. Computer models are providing guidance that around 2 inches more than average are likely in southern Indiana decreasing to only one-half inch more than average in the northern counties. The 1981-2010 climate normal[Read More…]


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When I was very young, I remember my father talking about “knee high by the Fourth of July”.  As I got older I thought that expression was so strange for it seemed the corn was usually “man high” by the Fourth of July. Obviously, the excessive rains and cooler temperatures have had an impact this year! While the above-normal precipitation from April and May may have tempered in June, Indiana is still getting “normal” amounts of rain on relatively saturated soils (Figure 1). In fact, preliminary data from June suggests that most of Indiana was near normal for precipitation with the southern third well above normal. Average temperatures in June were also near normal to a few degrees below normal. How will July end up? If it matches the climatological “normal” July, then average daily temperatures would be 70°F-75°F across the northern part of the state and above 75°F in[Read More…]


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So far for the month of May, temperatures across the state vary by nearly 2˚F above normal in the southeast and almost 3˚F below normal in the extreme northwest. Similarly, the same trends can be seen in the Modified Growing Degree Days as they are based on temperature (Figure 1).   The main story continues to be the precipitation for most of the state. Since January 1, precipitation is between 3 to 9 inches above normal in spots. Adding observed near normal to slightly above normal precipitation for the month in some areas is really delaying folks in the agriculture industry (Figure 2). Looking at the short term outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (Figures 3 & 4), much of the state has above normal chances for seeing above normal temperatures and precipitation over the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks. Our active weather pattern doesn’t[Read More…]


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The biggest topic seems to be how wet it is and how much more rain Indiana can expect. So far, May has experienced near-normal precipitation throughout the central part of the state with 0.5”-2” in southern and northern regions (Figure 1).  Combining this with April’s precipitation, however, means the soil moisture is still 60mm to over 80mm above average (Figure 2), causing saturated soils and the propensity for flooding anytime precipitation occurs. Speaking of which, 0.25”-1.5” of additional precipitation is expected over the next 7 days with the lower amounts favoring the northwestern part of the state.  Could there be drying beyond that? The climate outlook for May 16-22 is indicating slight probabilities for below-normal precipitation in the northern counties, but the rest of the state is statistically uncertain to predict above- or below-normal precipitation with confidence. However, keep in mind that normal precipitation (based upon 1981-2010 data) during that[Read More…]


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No reason exists to expect drought anytime soon in Indiana, with much of the state remaining rather wet after last weekend’s showers. One good new development exists. The precipitation pattern that has existed since nearly January seems to be becoming a little less predictable, which could mean more periods of drier weather between fronts on the horizon. Another bit of good news exists in above normal temperatures predicted on both the 7-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, according to the Climate Prediction Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/), which would allow for quicker drying of soils after any precipitation that does fall. Current growing degree days (base 50) for 2019, as of April 22, vary from 206 in Indianapolis to 322 in Evansville to 111 in Angola, marking a clear gradient in insect development and greening from south to north.  The entire state is now monitoring conditions for issuance of frost/freeze warnings from the NWS,[Read More…]


The rain seems to keep falling, barely providing time for things to dry out and start planting!  The last few weeks has experienced up to 2” above normal precipitation – particularly for west-central and southern Indiana, which is near the 125th-125th percentile. Warm days seem to be relatively few and far between, causing a slow start to growing degree-day (GDD) accumulations. While it is still early in the season, Indiana has only accumulated about 30-60 GDD units, with the few amounts to the north. Hard freezes (<= 28°F are still in recent memory, with the most recent hard freeze occurring just last week (April 1-3).  For April 8-16, precipitation forecasts are predicting 1.5”-2.5” of rain, with the higher amounts expected in the southern half of the state. There is still a 25-50% chance of a 32°F freeze occurring in southern counties and over a 90% chance of a freeze occurring[Read More…]


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March has been welcoming Indiana like a lion with below-normal temperatures and a combination of above and below normal precipitation (see figure). Snowfall accumulated across the state ranging from less than 1” in the southwest and northwest to as much as 3-4” in the southeast part of Indiana. This precipitation has caused drought to be absent across the state, but monthly and seasonal climate outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) suggest an increasing chance of below normal precipitation over the next few months.  While temperatures will continue to gradually warm throughout spring, there are still significant risks for a late season freeze. The typical date of the last hard (28°F or less) freeze is late March in southern Indiana to late April in northeast Indiana. However, hard freezes have occurred as late as mid-April in the southeast counties into mid-May for northern Indiana. According to the Weather Prediction Center[Read More…]





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