I have been asked a lot about what the unusually high temperatures we have been experiencing lately will mean for insect pests this season. I don’t have a good answer and often must respond with “it depends,” which is not very satisfying to those who ask. However, in exploring the question, I found the seasonal forecast models produced by NOAA. I thought that this is a useful tool and one that many of you may want to look at and consider as you prepare for the upcoming growing season.
Figure 1. Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook for Spring 2024, retrieved from http://agroclimate.org/forecasts/seasonal-forecast/.
Indiana is predicted to have above-normal temperatures and precipitation in the coming months. What does this mean for you? Well, depending on your location in the state, the probability of experiencing the above-normal averages is different. In the southernmost portions of the state, you are more likely to have increased precipitation (40-50% chance) compared to the northern portion (33-40% chance). How does that translate to production? It may be more difficult to get into the field to plant between precipitation events. As for temperature, the inverse is true. The northern portion of the state has a higher probability (40-50% chance) of experiencing above-normal temperatures than the lower portion of the state (33-40% chance). Temperatures can impact the planting date, the speed at which your transplants/seeds grow, and the speed at which insects develop and become active on the landscape.
Regardless of your predicted seasonal forecast, I think we can all agree that anything is possible in Indiana. To be prepared, have your pest management plan in place, traps set out in advance of planting if you use them, and start scouting the fields as soon as you are ready to plant.